Jane’s Defence – Articles on the Kosovo crisis during March – June 1999

Jane’s Defence – These articles on the Kosovo crisis appeared on Jane’s Defence Home Page during March – June 1999

These articles on the Kosovo crisis appeared on Jane’s Defence Home Page during March – June 1999

‚Allied Force‘ applied to Serbia
Washington DC NATO Operation ‚Allied Force‘ was launched on 24 March, involving at least 400 aircraft and seven Tomahawk-capable ships.

US cruise missile supplies dwindling
The USA’s supply of cruise missiles has dwindled dangerously low, forcing NATO planners to use the expensive, satellite-guided missiles only on high-priority Yugoslav Serb targets.

Options for ground war
A NATO ground force to oust Federal Republic of Yugoslavia troops from Kosovo would require at least 100,000 troops, including a „robust corps“ of heavy and light US units, US Army generals say.

How Dutch F-16AMs shot down a Mig-29
Four F-16AMs of the Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF) were among the first NATO aircraft to enter Serbian airspace on the night of 24 March. Within minutes, the Dutch had achieved their first air-to-air victory since World War II, shooting down a Serbian MiG-29.

Allies still lack real-time targeting
Despite lessons learned from the 1990-91 Gulf War, NATO forces participating in Yugoslavia as part of Operation ‚Allied Force‘ have not fielded a real-time targeting capability ­ the ability to pass images of enemy installations and troop formations directly from spacecraft or airborne surveillance aircraft into the cockpit of fighter aircraft or other weapons systems.

New anti-armour weapon should debut over Serbia
Officials expected the US Department of Defense’s latest air-dropped anti-armour munition, the Textron-built CBU-97 Sensor-Fuzed Weapon (SFW), to debut during NATO’s ‚Allied Force‘ air campaign in Yugoslavia, targeting Serb main battle tanks and other military vehicles.

Serbs take defensive stance as NATO strikes intensify
As NATO air operations were stepped up last week to target a broad array of Yugoslav targets, Serb forces adopted a „defensive and concealed posture“ hiding main battle tanks near civilian houses and slowing military activity in order to conserve resources.

Special forces involvement confirmed
As NATO pilots experience difficulties in attacking mobile Serb forces, the role of special forces becomes more important.

Alliance plays the psychological game into Yugoslav airspace
The US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) is conducting psychological operations (psyops) daily throughout the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in a bid to assist the escalating allied air strikes.

US ’soft bombs‘ prove NATO’s point
To illustrate both NATO’s expanded target list in Yugoslavia and the desire to avoid civilian damage, the US Air Force (USAF) used a classified weapon last week to temporarily turn off power to an estimated one million people without causing permanent damage.

Croat general to lead KLA as part of reorganisation
As part of the drive to reorganise the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), Agim Ceku, a former Croatian Army brigadier-general, has been named the new chief of staff.

NATO will use Turkish bases
Turkey approved on 11 May the stationing of US combat and tanker aircraft on its territory to be used to further strengthen NATO air strikes against Yugoslavia.

NATO allies retain national control of Kosovo air strikes
The deployment of 10 Mirage F-1CT attack aircraft to Istrana Air Base, Italy, in mid-May has allowed the French Air Force contingent to fly round-the-clock strike missions as part of Operation ‚Allied Force‘.

Embassy bombing report to reveal targeting flaws
The preliminary findings of the US investigation into the mistaken bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, last month point to a major intelligence failure, with some basic principles of targeting not followed, according to sources close to the review.

NATO’s KFOR prepares for ‚the inevitable‘
Alliance forces in Macedonia are poised to move into Kosovo as soon as NATO gives the order, according to their commander, Lt Gen Sir Mike Jackson, commander of the Allied Command Europe Rapid Reaction Corps. „We are ready to implement an agreement very quickly,“ he said.

‚Serbs running out of SAMS‘, says USA
Yugoslav air defence forces have expended the majority of their stocks of radar-guided surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), according to US Air Force (USAF) commanders at Aviano Air Base, Italy, responsible for suppression of enemy air defence (SEAD) missions.

Russian S-300 SAMs ‚in Serbia‘
According to unsubstantiated reports Russia or elements in Russia are believed to have supplied air defence units of the Yugoslav Air Force with elements of between six and 10 S-300PM (NATO Codename: SA-10b ‚Grumble‘) long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems just weeks before NATO launched its bombing campaign on 24 March.
Russian S-300 SAMs ‚in Serbia‘ appeared in Jane’s Defence Weekly 4 August 1999.

Albania cashes in on Kosovo crisis
„The refugee crisis is the best thing that has happened to this country,“ was the cynical comment recently of a Western intelligence operative based in Albania’s capital, Tirana. (Posted 24 May 1999)

Yugoslavians offered Internet anonymity
Anonymizer.com, an Internet gateway which offers privacy to its users and which has an anonymous email service, has stepped into the Balkan conflict to help shield the identities of Serbia’s online users. (Posted 24 May 1999)

NATO feels impact of HUMINT cuts
Although specific details surrounding NATO’s disastrous bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade on 8 May had not been made available as JIR went to press.

new KLA/UÇK leader
Brigadier Agim Ceku has been named the new chief of staff for the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA/UÇK), replacing Bislim Zyrapi. Brig Ceku, who defected from the Yugoslav Army to the newly formed Croatian Army in 1991, was a key planner in Croatian offensives from 1993.

Milosevic finds his bridges are burnt
The NATO air campaign over Yugoslavia was into its fourth week as JIR went to press, with UK Prime Minister Tony Blair among others identifying the removal of Serb leader Slobodan Milosevic as the ultimate objective. Recently back from the Balkans, Zoran Kusovac reviews recent events and concludes that Milosevic’s political calculations have finally let him down.

The KLA: braced to defend and control
Over the last year, the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) has transformed itself from a band of guerrillas to a structured force capable of running political and internal affairs. Zoran Kusovac reports how they did it.

NATO strikes blunt Yugoslav air defences
The following appraisal of Yugoslav air defences is extracted from a longer feature – „NATO strikes blunt Yugoslav air defences“ by Seymour Johnson, carried in the April issue of Jane’s Missiles and Rockets.

The Serbia-Russia Connection
AS FOREIGN REPORT went to press, a Russian delegation headed by the prime minister, Yevgeny Primakov, had arrived in Belgrade, the Serbian capital, on a mission designed to bring peace to Kosovo. His chances seemed slim. Earlier, a lower-level delegation had been scheduled to make the visit. It caused some concern in NATO circles, not least because one of the visitors was said to be a sales representative of the Russian arms company, Rozvoorouzhennie. This company is one of the world’s biggest arms firms.

The Serbia-Israel connection ISRAEL
has received an urgent Serbian request for military supplies, according to FOREIGN REPORT’s Israeli sources. The Serbian government, through a senior Israeli diplomat, has presented its shopping list of military equipment, medicines and credit. The Israeli response is not known.

After the Serbs lose
What happens if Serbia stops fighting and concedes what the western alliance wants – autonomy for the ethnic-Albanians with the possibility of a separate state some time in the future, respect for human rights and incorporation of the Albanian rebels in the police. If the Serbs, brought to their knees, make these concessions, will the Balkans house of cards collapse as Serbia’s rivals take advantage of its plight?

What chance for Kosovo?
West’s commitment under question

A SERIES of high-level diplomatic conferences designed to ensure future stability and promote regional co-operation concluded in the Balkans last week. Yet, despite all the promises of financial assistance and determination, the reality is that the security situation inside Kosovo is deteriorating.

Operations in Kosovo Yugoslav Order of Battle
Charles Heyman – Editor of Jane’s World Armies

History of Yugoslavia 1948-1998

Background information
Recent background to current crisis in Kosovo

Ethnic Groups and Religions in Yugoslavia
Statistics on the Ethnic Groups and Religions

Lessons from Kosovo

Never before has air power played such a central role in the conduct and outcome of an entire conflict. Nick Cook examines the facts. War of extremes appeared in Jane’s Defence Weekly 7 July 1999.

Winning the peace in Kosovo could prove more difficult than winning the war. Richard Connaughton examines the issues of peacekeeping, from the immediate uncertainty of unity of command to the long-term risks posed by partitioning.
Can KFOR win the peace? appeared in Jane’s Defence Weekly 14 July 1999.

International politics changed little as a result of the Kosovo war. Major changes in the balance of power would only have occurred had NATO suffered a palpable defeat ­ a premature end to its military operations before its defined objectives had been achieved or a political settlement which failed to create the conditions for the return of the refugees to Kosovo.
The future of international politics in the wake of Kosovo appeared in Jane’s Defence Weekly 21 July 1999.

Many NATO armies are struggling to balance expanding peacekeeping commitments. JDW News Editor Ian Kemp reports
Peacekeeping at a Stretch appeared in Jane’s Defence Weekly 28 July 1999

Balkan Endgame?
Following devastating airstrikes in Yugoslavia, what are the options for an acceptable settlement on the ground? Richard Bassett examines the prospects for the future and the lessons of the past.

Operations Allied Force / Allied Harbour / Joint Forge – Order of Battle / Basing